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Coming into 2023, commercial real estate (CRE) continued to face significant pressure, resulting from a rapid increase in interest rates and weakened post-pandemic demand, combined with fears of an economic slowdown.
At the same time, the banking sector, particularly regional banks, is contributing to growing CRE concerns. Regional banks account for 70% of total bank CRE loan exposure. Given the increased strain on regional banks over the past two weeks, there is further concern that these banks may retreat from being an important source of capital to operators and developers.
As a result, we expect CRE to face more downward pressure. Real estate operators will encounter increased challenges in financing projects, including refinancing of existing credit facilities. Further, expectations of an economic slowdown will force weaker operators to accept significantly less attractive forms of financing.
But these challenges are creating opportunities for value-minded real estate investors.
We believe opportunistic real estate presents investors with an attractive buying opportunity, as fund managers can purchase quality properties at discounted levels.
Steve Houston
Managing Director,
Head of Investment Products
CHART OF THE MONTH
Regional banks account for 70% of total CRE loan exposure, with CRE loans representing 43% of all loans for small banks (versus only 13% for large banks). Coupled with an upcoming wall of maturities in CRE loans, it is easy to see the potential for rising default risk in CRE portfolios of smaller banks.
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