Resilience is being tested.
Growth remains strong, but elevated expectations, oil prices and inflation leave less room for disappointment.
Our Q4 Investment Views examine how despite continued strong earnings growth, the combination of higher oil prices, elevated interest rates, and a less resilient consumer backdrop is reshaping market opportunities and risks heading into 2027. We highlight the key developments influencing public and private markets and discuss the implications for portfolio positioning.
Three Changes That Matter
01
The energy shock resets the rate outlook
We view oil as the key factor in driving the near-term direction of inflation, central bank policy and interest rates. With global oil prices holding near $100 per barrel, risk to interest rates skews to the upside.1
02
Equity gains need broader participation
Earnings growth remains robust but concentrated. Signs of further broadening would help support the equity market against the backdrop of higher yields and tightening liquidity.
03
Private-market recovery remains selective
Redemption pressure in private credit is easing, while higher financing costs continue to weigh on leveraged buyouts. Dispersion and manager selection matter more.
ENDNOTES
- Bloomberg Index Services, as of October 13, 2026.
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